Investigated

Raimund Bruhin in discussion with Joël Cachelin "First the mission, then the vision"

Swissmedic Director Raimund Bruhin and futurologist Joël Cachelin take a look at what the future could hold. They bat ideas around, prompt each other with questions about future developments and emerging trends, and discuss whether it is in fact possible to make a general prognosis. They also consider the extent to which the Swissmedic strategy can be planned and talk about the challenges that the Swiss Agency for Therapeutic Products will be facing in the future.

Raimund Bruhin (RB): "Mr Cachelin, what sort of things does a futurologist do?"

Joël Cachelin (JC): "I help companies to consider questions that affect their future. It’s a combination of advice, support, inspiration and presentation. I spend most of my time reading and writing. I research sources, read interviews and carry out fieldwork. I also work with the media and social media."

JC: "What is your primary vision for Swissmedic?"

RB: "Over the coming years, we want to make Swissmedic one of the five most digitally modern therapeutic products agencies in the world to ensure that it’s well equipped to face the future. At the same time Swissmedic needs to become synonymous in the public eye with rapid access to safe and innovative therapeutic products and reliable monitoring of these products throughout their life cycle. In the minds of stakeholders in politics and industry, Swissmedic ultimately stands for sovereignty in the healthcare sector."

RB: "To what extent is it actually possible to know what tomorrow holds?"

JC: "On a detailed level, it’s not really possible at all. There are too many technical, ecological and geopolitical factors that can affect the situation. My aim is not to foretell the future but rather to identify areas in which the future can be shaped. This helps us to identify the issues that will dominate events. I also look at historical material to identify trends that are already well under way and those that will persist."

JC: "How much freedom do you have personally to shape the future of Swissmedic?"

RB: "The degree of freedom varies according to the topic. There are legal provisions that define our mandate comprehensively and constantly for the next five years. The exception here is medical devices, an area in which we need new legislation in the coming years. When you look at the 'how', this is where strategy and anticipation play a role; there is a fair amount of leeway here as long as you’re open-minded and bold. Good examples include our open communication strategy, our forward-looking IT strategy and our digitalisation mindset. There is no getting away from the fact that we are a government agency. For us, the mission always comes first and the vision follows."

RB: "What methods do you base your studies on, and how reliable are your findings?"

JC: "I basically use three sources. I read books, I use science fiction for inspiration and I draw on discussions and observations that take place in companies with which I’m involved. This input creates my own conceptual world within which I operate. But I’m not the sort of futurologist who will tell you what’s going to happen in 2070. Neither do I work on the quantitative level. It’s more important for my audience to ask themselves new questions than for them to understand the probability of a trend emerging."

JC: "How many years ahead do you plan at Swissmedic?"

RB: "In absolute figures, five years. But at the same time we do try to set the course for the time beyond this planning period and to lay a foundation for sustainable development until at least 2030. One thing is clear: we are approaching a phase of innovation that is likely to last until 2026. This will very probably be followed by a consolidation phase. But overall the situation is, and will remain, dynamic."

RB: "You also research trends. How do you identify tomorrow’s trends?"

JC: "I see myself more as a futurologist who is interested in long-term change. Short-term trends tend to revolve around consumer goods and lifestyle. If you want to see what’s happening there, you can look at the big cities in Asia, for example."

Raimund Bruhin and futurologist Joël Cachelin

"Over the coming years, we want to make Swissmedic one of the five most digitally modern therapeutic products agencies in the world to ensure that it’s well equipped to face the future."
Raimund Bruhin

JC: "How will you respond if attention increasingly focuses on Swissmedic in the future?"

RB: "We can hardly be more the centre of attention than we have been in recent years. We foresaw this development and realigned our communication strategy two years ago, expanding our presence on social media and engaging more with the public. We also had to increase our headcount to achieve this level of qualitative and quantitative communication. The emphasis is on a dialogue with patients and our stakeholders. Today, communication is an important management tool for Swissmedic."

RB: "Our society and research are changing at an ever-faster pace. Will this still be the case in the future?"

JC: "Is that idea really true? In the past, there were also very marked changes that altered our lives in the same way as the iPhone has done. I’m thinking of the construction of the railways, for example, or the first skyscrapers. On the other hand, I believe that we are undergoing a phase of consolidation in the field of digital technology, at least as far as the devices we use on a day-to-day basis are concerned. I doubt whether society is ready for smart glasses, rings and contact lenses at the moment. There are also environmental reasons against introducing even more computer technology. So I think the major changes in this century are more likely to revolve around the way we live together. That brings us to subjects like the four-day week, veganism or building with recycled and reusable elements."

JC: "What new challenges are you most looking forward to?"

RB: "Our digitalisation campaign is going to be exciting, in particular the implementation of the new IT strategy which includes the integration of elements of artificial intelligence, new technological expertise and elements of active market surveillance. The ongoing establishment of our position both nationally and internationally is another challenging project. Cooperation with other regulatory authorities is an area with a lot of potential for selective promotion of topics and projects that are also in our interest."

"I can certainly imagine this increasing our life expectancy in the medium term by 10 to 20 years."
Joël Cachelin

RB: "What are the dominant medical trends going to be in the coming years – and which companies do you think are going to take the lead?"

JC: "I can think of several. For example, telemedicine including new possibilities for diagnosis and prevention. Other trends that I can envisage are mental health and with it greater blending of health and lifestyle. A great deal of money was invested in mRNA technology as a result of the COVID pandemic. I can certainly imagine this increasing our life expectancy in the medium term by 10 to 20 years. Demographic change in general is of course a topic that will feature widely in medicine in the future."

JC: "The pace of change in the world of medicine in particular is currently very rapid. How are you ensuring that Swissmedic will be able to keep up as an institution?"

RB: "We undertake something called Horizon Scanning. We use this to observe our whole environment constantly, and it enables us to anticipate developments so that we can adapt our organisation and our sectors in good time. Because we keep our ears to the ground, we already know what the future holds in terms of new medicinal products – they include products for novel therapies, ATMP, cell therapy, gene therapy and mRNA."

RB: "Which topics do you feel Swissmedic should pay particular attention to?"

JC: "I think one important aspect is that algorithms are set to play as great a role as pills in the medicine of the future. The opportunities and risks associated with personalised medicine are another facet of this issue. Swissmedic needs to ask itself who is collecting the data that tell the story of our health. It might also be a good idea to find out what the artificial intelligence deployed by the companies that make medicine actually optimises. Is the focus on health, for example, or yields, or longevity?"

JC: "Swissmedic has grown tremendously in recent years. Is this likely to continue?"

RB: "The reason for the expansion was primarily the need to deal with a backlog, but also to handle additional tasks, of course. We are set to grow slightly in the short to medium term. The main objective, though, is to fulfil our mandate at the level required now and in the future. Growth is not an end in itself."

RB: "Mr Cachelin, what does the future hold for Swissmedic?"

JC: "Swissmedic could ask itself, for example, how it can best find employees who are optimally suited to dealing with the technologies and issues of the future. Another important question is how best to design the workplace of the future. It needs to help us network, but at the same time, we need to be able to concentrate and really focus on a subject."